New York, if nowhere else, still makes the Port City seem like a bargain.

Even a one-bathroom fixer-upper back in Mamaroneck, a New York City suburb, would have run a half-million dollars, said Jennifer Hughes, a recent Wilmington arrival. Instead, she and her husband bade farewell to their two-bedroom apartment there for milder climes and a chance to raise their three kids in a house.

After scouting several Wilmington locales, they settled on a four-bedroom, 2 1/2-bathroom house with an in-ground pool off South College Road. They put in a bid about 10 percent below the original asking price of $335,000 and negotiated for a list of repairs.

And they got it.

"We didn't feel rushed at all," Hughes said.

It's a far cry from the frenzied days of 2004 and 2005 when buyers practically jumped over one another to slap down offers higher than the next. But the story also exemplifies another trend that local Realtors are quick to point out.

Amid national concerns of a deflating housing bubble, Wilmington remains a choice destination and prices in its core have stayed strong even as homes are taking longer to sell, demand at the beach has turned anemic and buyers have hopped in the driver's seat. Whether the strong prices will continue is open to debate.

Still strong?

Last week, the National Association of Realtors reported a 1.2 percent drop in home prices during the third quarter of the year. But in the Wilmington area, including New Hanover and parts of Pender and Brunswick counties, the median home price was $205,000 in October, a record high for the month, though down from the all-time high of $224,000 in July. The median is the midpoint on a list.

The number of homes sold, however, was down nearly 17 percent for the month from last year and 18 percent from October 2004.

"I haven't done the volume I did last year, but I did better than any year previous," said Martie Rice, a Realtor in Wilmington since 1993. "People who first experienced the market in mid-2004 to the one of 2005 experienced such a fluke, it's hard for them to compare."

But rates of increase have slowed: The median price of a Wilmington home jumped 17 percent between October 2004 and 2005, but 10 percent in the same span this year. And in some areas and price brackets, there could be a long winter before prices see growth.

Slowing at the beach

Across the board, island markets in Pender, New Hanover and Brunswick counties have dried up. In October, the median price for an existing single-family home in Brunswick County was $221,000, down more than $50,000 from the same month in 2005 as beach traffic has slowed.

"The beach has come almost to a halt," said Beth Suggs, president of the Brunswick County Association of Realtors, adding that mainland volumes remained strong. She's hoping for a spring rebound. "I think buyers are kind of sitting back waiting to see if prices drop."

In Carolina Beach and Kure Beach, where a surplus of new construction cooled one of the areas's most overheated markets, the number of residential units sold was down about 70 percent through Nov. 4 from last year, said Steve Bowman of Bowman Realty. Oceanfront lots that last year went for $1.3 million now sell for about $980,000, he said.

"We've seen land prices just tumble," he said.

And in certain mid-level price ranges, activity has slowed. In the Hampstead area, Realtor Jeff Lucas said demand for entry- and high-level homes is strong, but not in the $300,000 to $600,000 range, where there is little appreciation and long stays on the market, he said.

Likewise in New Hanover County, the $400,000 to $800,000 range is the most crowded, said Jim Spicuzza. a Realtor with Coldwell Banker. Some sellers are throwing out "make my day" numbers just to see what they can get, he said.

But when people put sensible prices on properties, they sell well, he said - they just can't assume because their neighbor got a certain price last year, they will too.

"It's not a flipper's market where you can get in and out in six months," Spicuzza said. "If you're willing to buy a home and you've got a two-, three-, four-, five-year outlook, there is still some very positive appreciation to be had."

Rosy forecasts

Indeed, the longer outlook for the area has received glowing reviews from national media and real estate organizations. Last month, the Web site CNN Money named greater Wilmington the seventh-best area in the country in which to buy, citing the allure of climate, cost of living and culture. The article predicted 37 percent appreciation over the next five years, based on analysis by Moody's Economy.com.

"As the only city of any significant size on the North Carolina coast, Wilmington may be just beginning its boom," it stated.

Two weeks ago, the chief economist of the National Association of Relators named Coastal Carolina as the country's No. 1 emerging market at the trade group's conference in New Orleans, said Deb Quaranta, president of the Wilmington Regional Association of Realtors.

"My advice would be 'buy now,'●" said Donna Girardot, head of the Wilmington-Cape Fear Home Builders Association. She believes the slowdown is an aberration.

With employment strong and interest rates still relatively low, she expects a turnout around next year. Some of the larger local builders are buying land now, a sign they too are positive about the future, she said.

"The direction is still up," said Joe Pascal, the real estate broker who helped the Hugheses buy their home.

Some have doubts

Still not everyone is convinced. Real estate investor Rich Lehrer said he wants the sunny outlook to be true, but he doesn't see who's going to buy the high-priced homes.

Rents have not risen enough to make landlords interested in home prices; slow markets elsewhere mean that people wanting to relocate are pressed to get out of their current homes; and local salaries remain meager in comparison to the cost of real estate.

Last year, the per capita income in the Wilmington metropolitan area was $28,584, just less than that of Rome, Ga., and 222nd in the country, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce.

"Prices are going to have to come down before the market starts moving again," Lehrer said. "If you bought last year, you better not need to sell this year."

Woody Hall, an economics professor at the University of North Carolina Wilmington, also expects prices to decline. They rose so quickly that they got ahead of fundamentals, he said.

Different pockets of the market will act differently, he said. But overall he predicted a slight decline in prices followed by flat growth. Builders are already reacting by pulling back on new construction, he said.

The number of permits issued for single-family homes in New Hanover County was down more than 30 percent through September from the same time last year, according to data collected by Market Opportunity Research Enterprises, a real estate tracking company. In Brunswick, such permits were down 14 percent.

The importance of timing

Still, if real estate were easy to predict, there would be no market for late-night ads for "get rich" schemes.

"I tell my students you can predict anything you want as long as it doesn't have anything to do with the future," said Edward Graham, an associate professor of finance at UNCW, who teaches real estate classes. "You cannot predict real estate prices."

In the long run, they tend to go up, he said. But in any set time period, it's an open question. The real estate maxim of "location, location, location" is really second to "timing, timing, timing."

The beauty of a house as an investment is that it can be a home. Even if you have to hold on for a turn in the market, you still live in it, clearly not possible with stock, bonds or even multiple homes.

"We're not looking at this as a short-term investment," said Jennifer Hughes, the New York transplant. "It's our home. We plan on living here for many years."

Sam Scott: 343-2370

sam.scott@starnewsonline.com